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PMC12193160 Bissett, D

Approval Timeline and Availability CagriSema: Ahead in the Race FDA Submission: December 18, 2025 (NDA filed) Expected FDA Decision: Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 Predicted Launch: Mid-2027 Advantage: 6-12 month head start on retatrutide REDEFINE Program Status: REDEFINE-1: Completed (obesity, 20.4% weight loss) REDEFINE-2: Completed (type 2 diabetes, 13.7% weight loss) REDEFINE-3: Ongoing (cardiovascular outcomes trial) REDEFINE-8: Ongoing (body composition study) High-dose CagriSema (2.4/7.2mg): Starting late 2026 Retatrutide: More Trials Needed FDA Submission: Expected Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 Expected FDA Decision: Late 2027 Predicted Launch: Q1-Q2 2028 TRIUMPH Program Status: TRIUMPH-4: Completed (osteoarthritis, 28.7% weight loss) TRIUMPH-1: Complete 28.3% weight loss (May 2026) TRIUMPH-2: Expected Q3Q4 2026 (obesity + type 2 diabetes) TRIUMPH-3: Expected later 2026 (obesity + cardiovascular disease) TRIUMPH-6: Weight maintenance trial (ongoing) Disadvantage: Needs more trials before submission, 6-12 month delay vs CagriSema

Phase 2 datasets did not show a clear effect on weight-loss efficacy or safety

In the United States, roughly 2 out of 3 adults are overweight or obese (69%) and 1 out of 3 is obese (36%)

Safety data are lacking